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MOD70 EUROPEAN TOUR – While the start gun was due to be fired at 1000 UTC (1100 local), for now the crews of the five MOD70 trimarans are having to be patient. The Race Committee has delayed the start until 1300 UTC (1400), by which time the breeze is forecast to have filled in from the southwest. When this occurs the 1071 mile long leg, through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean and on to the south of France, will get underway.
The routing for leg four is suggesting it will take even the breathtakingly quick MOD70 trimarans four days to complete the course.
At present there is a weak depression located over northwest Spain, while some 1000 miles to the west, out in the middle of the Atlantic, ex-cyclone Nadine has been reaping havoc around the Azores, although this is due to track south over the next few days. Between Nadine and the Portugese coast lies a giant ridge and this easing east later today will cause the wind to veer dramatically into the north or NNW overnight. Forecasters suggest that on the opening section of the course down to Cape St Vincent and probably beyond there will also be localised calms to be avoided.
Into tomorrow morning the northerlies look set to settle, backing into the northwest as the MOD70s cross the Bay of Cadiz en route for the Strait of Gibraltar.
The Strait itself is always a dilemma, a choice to stick to the Moroccan shore or the Spanish coastline. Fortunately the latest meteo has the strong easterly headwinds forecast a few days ago as having abated with little pressure when the boats arrive in the Alboran Sea between south Spain and Morocco, but building the further they head east – a classic case of the rich getting richer.
While the forecast is showing the conditions to be decidedly fickle and changing, the outcome of Leg 4 could also prove decisive overall in the MOD European Tour. With six points now separating leaders FONCIA from Spindrift racing the pressure is on Yann Guichard’s team to reduce that deficit as much as possible.
In Marseille there are two days of intense City Race and just the final offshore, Leg 5, to Genoa left as scoring opportunities. So, although the event has only just passed its midpoint, time is running out and the final finish is on the horizon.
This will be a very tactical leg, with many opportunities to break away from the fleet and do something different.
Whether teams are now prepared to push the risk and reward equation more and try to break away, or whether they will do the opposite and stick closely to their nearest opposition will be very apparent on this leg.
In these sometimes random conditions it will hard for teams to control their opponents. The transitions will be difficult and the leaders’ life always the most stressful.
In the bigger picture when once there was a hierarchy of three boats at the top of the fleet, now it is much more open. Musandam-Oman Sail and Race for Water have proven they are now well capable of winning offshore and inshore. Stève Ravussin’s team took second on the short offshore, Leg 3, only 5 minutes and 50 seconds behind FONCIA, and of course Musandam-Oman Sail won the Cascais City Race series. So the level has risen visibly, and that high level is evenly matched through the fleet.
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